What is the economic conjuncture of the market? What is its significance in modern conditions?
general information
In a broad sense, when the economic conjuncture is mentioned, this means a certain set of conditions that have developed in the market at a given moment in time. You can say a little and in a different way. The economic conjuncture is:
- The general situation of market relations that have developed at this point in time.
- A list of factors and the impact on the functioning of a particular economy, in which internal and external causes interact.
In a narrower sense, a combination of events or circumstances (for example, a crisis or a critical state of a household, an enterprise, a sector, or the entire economy) can be implied. Thus, we can say that the concept of conjuncture includes a set of mutually related conditions that determine the transition of the object under consideration from one state to another. Depending on the subject under consideration, the directions are divided. So, there is a conjuncture of the economy, individual commodity markets and so on. Each of these areas is engaged in the study of its layer of economic life.
Cyclicity
This process underlies the functioning of the conjuncture. To understand the cyclical patterns in the development of the economy, it is not enough simply to record fluctuations in prices and the movement of stocks. It is also necessary to know the characteristic features and characteristics of each phase, as well as the transitions between them. So, one conjuncture is said when the economy is in a state of crisis. Quite a different state of affairs is observed with the rise of the economic sector. Each economic cycle has its own peculiarities . The conjuncture, more precisely its direction, requires familiarization with academic literature in order to have a full understanding of this issue. But as an example, we can cite several special cases. So, let's imagine that we describe the situation using the traditional curve of the aggregate supply. We are considering the crisis situation. In this case, the curve will shift to the left and up (if you compare with the rise). This is due to an increase in the cost of production, which is expressed in constant prices. In other words, if the sales of products remain the same (adjusted for inflation), the entity will be able to create a smaller volume of output. And now let's talk about the characteristics that the economic conjuncture has.
Variability and inconsistency
This is expressed in the variability of states and the frequency of oscillations. Some factors can affect the conjuncture for a short time, while others have a larger impact. An example of volatility is the stock market. He responds very quickly to even the smallest changes that occur in the economy, politics, public life and so on. Concerning the inconsistency, we can say that this is expressed in the fact that there can be indicators of both a recession and an upswing. As an example, we can cite the situation in the Russian Federation, which was in January-October 1997. Then there was an increase in GDP and an increase in the output of industrial products. At the same time, there was a drop in the rate of growth in production.
Unevenness and unity of opposites
The change in the economic situation is not the same everywhere. If we talk about unevenness, then it can be noticed in those cases when the direction of the growth dynamics of different indicators coincides, but the pace is different. In such cases, some goods are always more than the second. As an example, we can cite Ukraine as a model of 1996. So, more than 85% of all sold products fell on the commodity sector, which is very bad for the state. Concerning the unity of opposites, one can cite this. The war has a negative impact on trade and development of the peaceful sector of the economy. But when the political conflict in Iraq complicated in 1998, and the country was threatened with an invasion by the United States, the volume of demand jumped. That's how the economic conditions can depend on political realities. The conjuncture in this case can be very positive. Thus, at the end of the second millennium, the stocks of silver began to drop sharply, which was required to create photographs. This led to the creation of more rational and optimal digital cameras.
Features
When using elements of the methodology of analysis, and then forecasts of market conditions, it is necessary to monitor the activities and nature of the actions of cyclical factors. Also, it is necessary to take into account the causes and processes, the development of which, because of their nature, does not provide for repetitions in the implementation scheme. These are: inflation, scientific and technological progress, militarization of the economy, concentration of capital and production, and so on. In addition, social conflicts, natural disasters, speculative factors, extreme conditions and the like can exert their influence.
Conclusion
As you can see, the economic conjuncture is not such a simple thing. Of course, in order to understand and profit from it, one article is not enough. But if the topic is interesting - there are plenty of opportunities to study it. Important in human society is not only the acquisition of knowledge, but also their successful application in practice. Therefore, if there is a desire and vision of one's own person in the economic sphere - this is a pretty good start, which can lead to prosperity and success.