What is the situation in the Russian oil industry? Realities and prospects

The oil race continues, and in it each of the participants acts according to their own interests. The frenzied attempt to achieve a concerted restriction of the proposal made in Doha failed, mainly because of the rejection of Saudi Arabia, which in turn proved to be a desperate situation. The price of oil is slowly but growing, which contributes to the filling of the budget of the Russian Federation, already prepared for big problems according to the most pessimistic forecast. What to expect next? How does the extractive industry feel today, which is of strategic importance for the national economy? This can be judged only by the conclusions of qualified experts - many data for obvious reasons are not disclosed.

The situation in America

The US oil industry is experiencing serious difficulties in conditions of low prices. The decline in world prices led to a decrease in profitability with all the ensuing consequences under all the rules of economic science. American fishers themselves pushed themselves into a trap, creating a disastrous excess supply. With the cost of a barrel of $ 46, the shale sub-sector is practically cut off from the market, the technology is becoming unprofitable, however, it has some advantage, it takes less time to re-open the mine than with the classical method. Oil production in the US reached a record peak in June 2015, then 9.6 million barrels per day were extracted from the bowels. Now this figure fell to 8.8 million and continues to decline. The industry is experiencing great difficulties with the payment of loans taken on the basis of high profits, which are no longer there.

The situation in OPEC

The cartel, uniting the oil-producing countries of the Middle East, at the present stage has demonstrated its low efficiency. In other words, what it is, what it is not, there is no difference. The main driving force, the locomotive of the organization, Saudi Arabia, behaves as if no OPEC exists, and the main stumbling block was Iran's position on further increase in production. This is understandable, the country, which has suffered from long sanctions, wants to compensate for the lost profit for many decades, besides, as the latest quotations show, even additional volumes do not influence the market so much.

Saudi dumping is more conducive to a trend that prevents the price growth, which so far still does not suit El Riyad, who needs to have a quotation of at least a hundred, otherwise the state budget can not be reduced. The announced readiness to increase production has not yet had any significant impact. Tehran in April went for pre-shipment volume of supplies. In general, the imbalance in favor of the supply remains on the world market, but it is gradually leveling off. Demand is increasing, and reached a five-year high, which is also normal in the current market, cheap resource is consumed faster than expensive, while the mechanism of self-regulation operates, and the price gradually increases.

Russian "greenfields"

Currently, due to active oil production in the US and OPEC countries, the proposal increased by 1.25 million barrels, but by the end of 2017 the imbalance is projected to drop to 0.14 million barrels. In this connection, Russia's position is of interest. According to experts from VYGON Consulting, domestic oil production is growing rapidly, and within the next year its volumes will reach 565 million barrels per day, which corresponds to the level of even the record-breaking Soviet-era 1987. For reference: this year this figure is 545 million. The main sources of growth in the supply of raw materials are so-called greenfields (greenfields), that is, recently commissioned deposits. This is due to tax incentives provided by the state at the initial stage of production. The share of "green fields" is one third of the total. If the agreement is reached in Doha, these deposits could not be put into operation yet. In total, they are represented by seventeen new projects, which make it possible to increase production by 16.5 million tons this year and by 17 million tons in the next.

Reduction in processing volumes

The fact that additional volumes of extracted oil will be exported, no one doubts. According to the head of VYGON Consulting G. Vygon, the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development about the probable decrease in deliveries to the world market by 2.4% (up to 236 million tons) is incorrect in conditions of production growth and reduction of internal consumption of cracking products. Sales of gasoline of various brands and DTs grew 15 years, but in 2015 they fell by 2.3%. Thus, there is reason to expect not a decrease, but an increase in exports by 13 million tons this year, which is good in terms of the currency's filling capacity. The reason for this is obvious, Russians have started to drive less and buy cars (which, of course, is bad). For example, in 2008 the population purchased 3 million cars, even more than in Germany, and in the past, 2015, only 1.2 million. Accordingly, people bought less fuel.

Influence of the situation on the price of gasoline in the country

For export, not only surplus oil, but also processed products will go. In this and next years additional capacities for the production of gasoline will be put into operation, and all surplus is intended for the external market. Its volume is expected to reach 9.1 million tons, which is a positive trend, as the added value in this case is much higher than when selling raw materials. However, unfortunately, it is not necessary to expect the reduction of the retail price to Russian motorists, if the liter of the 92nd in 2014 cost an average of 31 rubles. 40 kopecks, then already in the first quarter of this year - 34 rubles. 10 kop. To understand the reason for this behavior of gasoline, it is necessary to delve more deeply into its pricing, which is significantly affected by excise tax (in 2015 it was lowered), oil quotations and devaluation (in the same year 2015 it "added 6 rubles 80 kopecks per liter ), Because the same fuel can be sold for dollars or euros.

Other factors of influence, unpleasant

The balance between the demand and supply for oil in the world is gradually leveled, despite the Iranian "attack" and the Saudi dumping. In the opposite direction, there are factors that prevent market enrichment, unfortunately, sometimes very unpleasant and even tragic. In Iraq, terrorists blew up an oil pipeline, then the same happened in Colombia, Kuwait fired fishermen, in Canada, forest fires occurred just where the mining takes place. All this reduced the offer.

What else affects the balance sheet?

Demand increased, its increase was 1.4 million barrels per day, and the total volume reached 95.9 million barrels, and all in the first quarter of this year. The main buyers were India, China and Russia. Such a high consumption was unexpected for the market. At the same time Saudi Arabia did not fulfill its threat, its daily production volume remained 10.2 million barrels. So did the rest of OPEC, except Iran, of course. It's just not clear why Doha so rested. But the most important consequence of the price reduction is the decline in production in countries where production costs are high, according to the IEA forecast, they will be able to supply only 800 thousand barrels. per day.

Prospects

The Ministry of Energy on May 12 published a report according to which the price of oil up to 2040 could grow to 252 dollars per barrel. However, other variants of the development of events are allowed depending on various conditions, numbers $ 76 (negative forecast) or $ 141 (averaged-realistic) are called. However, it is difficult to judge now what will happen in a quarter of a century, as well as about what the real purchasing power of the US currency will be by that time. As for the immediate prospects (two-year), there is reason to hope for a price of 70-75 dollars with a low probability of reaching 100. Russia will withstand such quotes, but its competitors will clearly not survive all.