What happens to the dollar? What will be in the future - growth or collapse?

Currency markets do not cease to violate the forecasts developed by analysts around the world. None of the experts is able to answer unequivocally the question of what happens to the dollar. The formation of a course on one of the dominant currency pairs - the euro / dollar - is so chaotic that not only long-term, but also short-term forecasts have lost all meaning. A huge number of important events, such as the risk of a default of Italy and Spain, the fall in the ratings of America, confuse investors. It is problematic to determine which of the factors of the economy will have the strongest impact on the market. The layering of events makes the reliability of forecasts almost unrealistic. However, against the background of events taking place in the world, we can draw some conclusions.

How does America position itself?

America once again ceased to be the engine of the economy and became a source of problems. At the same time, investors do not cease to be interested in the dollar and treasury obligations, which have recently dropped significantly in the rating. Despite the critical situation in America and its huge external debt, interest and demand for currency is formed by a human factor. Any news and any event lead to chaos, there is a panic on the stock exchange, and the value of the dollar starts to grow against each of the currencies of the world. A big role in this matter is the confident position of the US in the oil market.

What is the ECB doing?

The European Central Bank , a few months ago, practiced a tightened monetary and credit policy. Now there is a different turn of events, quantitative easing is carried out . If we consider that the Fed is characterized by a softer policy, the actions on the part of the authorities lead to a sharp increase in the euro's offer in relation to the dollar offer. This state of affairs to some extent explains why the dollar is growing. Such a policy is mechanical and has no fundamental overtones. However, the experience of the past years clearly shows the likely scenario for the development of further events. In spring, in 2011, with the worsening of the situation in the peripheral countries and with the quantitative easing policy in America, with the withdrawal of liquidity from the ECB economy , the euro rose to the dollar. The lack of unambiguous orientation does not prevent a high probability of weakening the euro against the dollar.

What happens to the economy?

To understand what is happening with the dollar and why it is so actively growing in relation to all currencies in the world, one must look at the economic situation in the world. Recently, the world's top four CBRs made a statement that they are starting to implement a policy of quantitative easing. The Bank of Switzerland began to lower interest rates to zero, it began interventions against the franc. The second ECB began active purchases of Spanish and Italian government bonds on the open market. The Bank of Japan began actively selling yen in the open market. The Fed of America made a statement that interest rates in the US at zero level will be held for another two years. As a result, another wave of quantitative easing was formed.

The basic directions of the decision of problems and growth of dollar

The central banks of the leading countries of the world indirectly indicated that the growth of the world's strongest economies in the world will be practically absent in the near future. The probability of negative indicators is high. Structured problems related to high consumption and high debts have not yet been eliminated by the governments of the countries. And therefore, naturally, the way out of the situation has not yet been found. Problems, by and large, can be solved only in two ways:

• The deflationary method. Dismissals, defaults, an increase in savings rates, tax increases and so on.
• Inflationary method. The release of money into the market (through their additional printing) with further depreciation of debts and expenses. This is like one of the prerequisites that explains what is happening now with the dollar.

World countries are actively using the inflation method of solving problems. This leads to an increase in the number of euros, yen and dollars in circulation. At the same time, the number of assets, such as oil and food products, remained at the same level. Purely in the mechanical aspect, the cost of almost all goods in the world will grow, and the economy will be characterized by weak growth. If we take into account the fact that the dollar is a reserve currency, it is quite obvious that it will grow. Considering the question of what happens to the dollar, we can say that the current situation is nothing more than a reflection of the state of the world economy.

What led to the growth of the dollar in Russia: superficial reasons

A fairly large number of experts associate the growth of the dollar with the active fall in the cost of oil. The situation is clearly seen in the example of the devaluation of the ruble in the past year. If at the beginning of the year the dollar rate corresponded to 35-37 rubles, today the rate has already crossed the mark of 60 rubles. Stops and changes in the trend are not observed. In addition to the price policy in the oil markets, the growth of the dollar against the ruble was affected by the fall of the economies of Russia and Ukraine, as well as the introduction of tough sanctions against the Russian Federation by the West.

The influence of the human factor on the growth of the dollar

Investors completely refused to invest their savings in the state with a shaky economic condition. Adjustments were made and sanctions, which were discussed above. Great contribution to the formation of the situation was made by domestic oligarchs, who, assessing the situation in the country and in the world, promptly withdrew their savings outside of Russia. The remaining people in an attempt to save their savings began to buy up the currency, which provoked its active growth. The reduction in the currency, the growing interest in it and some other factors make it possible to answer the question of what is happening now with the dollar.

The Central Bank's actions are an inexplicable phenomenon

Pressure on the national currency of Russia increased sharply after the end of the meetings of the OPEC countries. The increase in oil production is not planned to be stopped. For the ruble exchange rate, this variant of the development of events is promised only by the fall of the national currency. Experts' forecasts remain disappointing, since the state regulator has almost completely removed responsibility for the ruble exchange rate. The national currency went on a free voyage. According to experts, such an action format is capable of producing the expected result, in particular, stabilization of the exchange rate, but only in those countries where the bulk of imports falls on the industrial sector, and the economy is stable. The economy of Russia does not correspond to any of the above parameters, therefore, no reaction to the free exchange rate occurred, rather, on the contrary, the situation only worsened.

What caused the sharp change in the exchange rate?

Looking at the situation and paying attention to what happens when the dollar grows, one can say about the worsening of problems among the population. The level of wages has declined, employment has become harder, and representatives of small and medium-sized businesses are forced to curtail their activities. We will not ignore the inability of the state to fulfill its social obligations, the reduction of social assistance programs and a sharp rise in the cost of all goods and services. Devaluation does not subside, and the state does not take any active measures. When will the dollar collapse? When does the situation stabilize? None of the analysts and about this can not say. At the same time, as the only direction for solving the situation, the denomination is considered.

What do analysts say?

On the actual question of what is happening to the dollar, 2014 was unable to give an answer. The situation changed so quickly that it was problematic for experts to track it. In 2015, this trend has been preserved. At the same time, none of the leading analysts even undertake to make forecasts and shed light on the situation. It is possible to focus only on conversations in the government and in economic circles. Not taking into account the fact that people are horrified by what happens when the dollar grows, the following statements were made. Ostensibly (we emphasize!) The government of Russia is already preparing for the dollar exchange rate at the level of 100 rubles and more. If earlier these figures seemed unreal, today they are considered as quite possible. As for the hryvnia, most experts are inclined to believe that the rate should stabilize at the level of 20-25 hryvnia, taking into account that trades on the interbank market close with indicators of 29 sale and 32 hryvnia purchase. There are forecasts that say that the rate in the near future will reach values of 70-80 hryvnia per dollar. Unequivocally answer the question, what happens to the dollar exchange rate, no one takes, in fact, as well as give a forecast of its movement. While it remains only to wait and watch what is happening.

Who wins the course?

Studying the question of what happens if the dollar becomes more expensive, it is worth saying that the situation is not completely negative. There is a category of people who receive income from a sharp increase in currency. This includes both brokers and traders. Manipulating the exchange rates, this category of people feels very good. Studying the dynamics of what is happening to the dollar, currency market experts not only do not experience material difficulties, like most of the population. They take advantage of the situation, which allows them to successfully earn and prosper. On abnormal economic world phenomena, one can quite successfully enrich itself.