Transnistria will join Russia or not?

The latest developments around the Crimea, which, depending on the point of view, call that "annexation", then "reunification", gave rise to the hope of an early resolution of some territorial problems that have been frozen for decades. The bloodless and very quick actions of the Russian army on the peninsula aroused joyful expectations among a large part of the population of the unrecognized republic, located between Moldova and Ukraine. The hope that Transnistria will soon become part of Russia seemed almost fulfilled.

Moldovian excesses

In 1992, the experience of resolving interethnic conflicts was poor. The Chechen war had just begun, Nagorno-Karabakh seemed to be something far off, the events in Sumgait seemed to be the product of some special Asian-exotic mentality, and Yugoslavia has not yet been bombed by NATO peacekeepers.

In the ecstasy of the sovereignty gained by the leaders of the Moldovan Popular Front, they overlooked the tendency toward discontent among residents of a significant part of the territory of their country. August 1989 was marked by the jubilation of local nationalists who won major victories in the Supreme Council of the MSSR: the approval of the Moldovan language as the state (single) and the abolition of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. There was also a transition to the Latin alphabet, which emphasized the complete "overseas". The fact that other languages are being oppressed, which the population has so far enjoyed successfully, has not paid attention to somehow in the heat of parliamentary debate.

The first referendum

The entry of Transnistria into Russia at that time was not planned, even the most daring political science fictionists did not dream about it. To pay attention not to the region creating 40% of the country's GNP, in 1990 the Tiraspol leadership conducted a referendum, which was 79% of voters dissatisfied with the policy of the nationally concerned parliament. The Transnistrian Moldovan Soviet Socialist Republic became a fact, but there was no question of secession from Moldova. Almost 96% of the Transnistrians simply wanted to be sure that their rights would be guaranteed, if not by the official Chisinau, then at least by the government of the PISSR. In addition, there were persistent talks about the coming reunification with Romania, and the inhabitants of the region wanted to ensure themselves the right to choose the country in which they were to live.

Another referendum

From the juridical point of view, the disintegration of the USSR was accompanied by numerous violations of international and Soviet laws, but nobody paid attention to this at that time. Sovereignties were announced, and if in the Union Republic of Suddenly brought a national flag, and the deputies began to sing a new hymn, then the case was considered perfect. So it was in Moldova, and not only in it. The parliament of the Gagauz autonomy did the same, but it caused an instant charge of separatism, and clashes started while "small bloodshed". For the unity of the country, volunteers volunteered for a foreign manner, called "volunteers", from Moldova and Romania.

June 1990. Deputies of the Moldovan left bank and Bender vote for the preservation of the USSR. After the 1991 coup , exactly 15 sovereign states appear on the expanses of the former Union. In the fall of the PMSSR, it becomes the PMR (Pridnestrovskaia Moldavskaia Respublika), that is, a separate country from Moldova. For this, 98% of 78% of the able-bodied population voted.

History

The reasons why many in the future see Transnistria as part of Russia are several, and they are both historical and legal in nature. The most important of these is that the Supreme Soviet of the MSSR, having decided to withdraw from the USSR, has dissolved the only legitimate document, according to which the former part of the Russian Empire was part of Moldova. Formally, even during the Romanian occupation during the Second World War, Pridnestrovie was not considered a royal territory: it was called the Transnistria, along with the Odessa region and other South Ukrainian lands. The only basis on which Tiraspol, Bendery and Gagauzia became Moldovan, was annulled voluntarily at the time of the declaration of sovereignty.

The referendum was held once again, its results revealed a complete reluctance of the population to enter the Republic of Moldova and the desire to determine their own future independently. But does this mean that Transnistria asks for membership in Russia? Maybe its citizens are so good?

War

The armed conflict of 1992 frighteningly resembles the current anti-terrorist operation of the Ukrainian army. However, there is a difference. Moldova is a small country, much smaller than Ukraine, and therefore there were occasions when formerly neighbors, friends and even relatives, who suddenly became enemies, took up positions in the hastily dug trenches. The population of Tiraspol, Bender and neighboring villages, for historical reasons, multinational, was accustomed to live amicably, but when President M. Snegur decided to "resolve" disputable issues by force, quickly organized the Guards. The weapon was not a problem, it fell to both opposing sides from the warehouses of the 14th Russian army, which were weakly guarded at the initial phase of the conflict. Everything was as it is now, and accusations against Moscow, and volunteers on both sides of the front line, and downed aircraft, and casualties among civilians. It seems that history, even the recent one, does not teach anyone anything ...

In 2006, another referendum was held. The overwhelming majority of Transnistrian citizens (96.7%) expressed the hope that Transnistria will become part of Russia ...

Economic component of the issue

In general, after more than two decades, the Transnistrian macroeconomic indicators look no worse than the Moldovan ones. The society is characterized by the absence of any ethnic tensions, which certainly works for common success, but much more important are the almost free energy resources that Russia supplies the unrecognized republic (that is, in debt, but without any hope of its return). There are problems, and they are connected, as in almost all post-Soviet countries, with the loss of traditional markets for the production. There is no doubt that Transnistria as part of Russia could find its niche - there are also factories, light industry enterprises, and agriculture that flourished during the existence of the USSR. But there are factors that prevent this kind of development of events.

Obstacles

The main factor determining the answer to the question of whether Transnistria will join Russia or not is that the de facto state is de jure absent from the political map of the world. Unlike Abkhazia and South Ossetia, this country has not yet been recognized by any member of the international community, including the Russian Federation. There is reason to believe that this act, if it takes place, will entail further sanctions and accusations of carrying out an aggressive policy.

The geographic location of the territory also matters. Since the political situation in Ukraine remains hostile and uncertain, it can be assumed that if Transdniestria joins Russia, this federation entity will be completely or partially blocked by its neighbors. Undecided how to react to this very likely unfriendly demarche on the part of Moldova and Ukraine, the Kremlin will not take such an action.

The Russian economy, despite a rather high degree of independence from foreign markets, like any other, is experiencing a global crisis. The government's task is not simple: to keep the achieved living standards (and, even better, to increase them) in conditions of a significant burden on the budget associated with an increase in public spending. Bringing the Crimea to the all-Russian level will also cost a considerable amount.

In addition, the interests of other major global geopolitical "players" should be taken into account. The aggravation of the situation in Europe, and even the creation of foci of tension in the prewar, and even more militarily, will play into the hands of potential suppliers of hydrocarbons, a way and more expensive, if traditional supply channels are blocked. All these circumstances do not allow us to hope that Transnistria will become part of Russia in the short term.

What's next?

During the existence of the USSR (and in more remote historical periods), practically in all of its republics some cultural and economic centers have formed, in which the Russian-speaking or ethnically Russian population predominates. This is the Ukrainian South-East, industrial regions of Kazakhstan and many other regions, where in the Soviet times specialists were sent to raise entire economic sectors, or the national composition was formed over the centuries. The wisdom of the leadership of newly independent states can be judged by how much it takes care of people, sometimes spent their whole lives on strengthening the economy, honestly doing their work and achieving considerable success in it. The exclamations about the famous suitcase and station testify to the absence not only of simple human decency, but also of ordinary pragmatism. Unfortunately, the mistakes of governments, blinded by the hypertrophied sense of national pride, are repeated. Ultimately, the integrity of the country is under threat. The fate of the breakaway fragments that have become "products of secondary division" of a great country in the short term is difficult to predict. Many of them have actually made their choice, the rest is a matter of time. Perhaps, the time will come when Transnistria will also be part of Russia. 2014 is unlikely to be that date.