The dolphi method. Organization of the solution of tasks by a team of experts

Appearing in the 1950-60's, the Delphi method has become a convenient tool for making predictions in the field of scientific developments and their influence on the strategic principles used in the conduct of war. Often it is called the Delphic method. In the process of its development, the specialists of RAND Corporation took an active part, and the direct authors are Norman Dalkey, Olaf Helmer and Nicholas Rescher. When choosing the name, it was decided to use the name of the Delphic Oracle.

The Delphi method is usually classified as an expert evaluation method. Its main features are anonymity, absenteeism, multi-level. The idea of the method is that, using a series of actions, consistently achieve the right decision or at least the maximum consensus. Such actions can be polls, interviews, brainstorming sessions. To produce the analysis operate in several stages, the processing of results is carried out by statistical methods.

The core uniqueness that the Delphi method has is its basic principle of using a number of independent experts (the best effect is achieved when they do not even know about each other). Multiple use of the method allows to conclude that the evaluation and prediction of the result by the unstructured group (team) of individuals gives better results. There is no open clash between the so-called bearers of opposing opinions. The Delphi method removes opponents from direct contact, group influence. The survey is conducted extraterritorially, experts are not gathered in one place.

The Delphi method assumes the presence of the following subjects: first of all, it is a group of researchers. Each of this group is required to respond individually and in writing, the next is an organizational group that should reduce the opinions of experts into one.

This method has properties that other methods that are included in different types and classes do not. Delphi, as a solution to complex problems, has several advantages. The main one is complete independence from the influence of the authority of the majority. There is no dispute and discussion, they are replaced by individual expert opinion polls. Step by step this process looks like a chain of mandatory activities.

At the preliminary stage, the selection of a group of experts takes place, as a rule, their number does not exceed 20.

The main stage involves posing a problem, during which experts receive a question and begin to break it down into sub-questions. The task of the organizational group is to select the most frequently encountered sub-questions, resulting in a questionnaire. This questionnaire is sent to experts who produce its evaluation for completeness of information and the ability to add something else. So there are 20 options that have additional answers with information and aspects, on the basis of which the next questionnaire is composed.

The already improved questionnaire is sent back to the experts. Now their task is to give their original solution, plus everything necessary to consider the most extreme points of view that other experts have provided. The assessment of the problem occurs on several aspects: the provision of resources, efficiency, and the degree of conformity to the formulation of the original task.

Appearance of the prevailing judgment of experts, bringing their point of view closer, the stage-cycle of solving the problem ends. Having familiarized the experts with arguments that have a strong difference, it is suggested to evaluate them with the subsequent possibility to change the opinion. The procedure is repeated after this.

The number of stages reaches three, but if necessary they can be more. After this, they pass to the final analytical moment. During it, check the consistency of opinions of experts, analyze the findings and develop final recommendations.