What happens to the ruble in Russia? What is the situation for the current year 2014?

Probably, few people are left indifferent about the change in the exchange rate of the Russian currency. The reasons for the ups and downs of the ruble are the topic of the hottest debate. Meanwhile, over the past five years, the national currency has presented Russians with dozens of surprises. Among a number of domestic economists there is an opinion that what is happening now with the ruble is a direct consequence of the events of 2008. In part, it is true, but the current dynamics of the national currency rate depends much more on the current state of our finances and the current political situation.

Everlasting Year 2008

Almost every person has his own opinion about the causes and consequences of a serious global crisis. In principle, today it is not so important whether it was provoked by players of the international financial market or was the result of a world conspiracy. What is more interesting is what these events turned out for the domestic financial system. Let's give a few figures that clearly illustrate the consequences of the crisis for Russia:

• Within one year 54 credit institutions were liquidated in the country, 47 of which were deprived of banking licenses.
• The dollar exchange rate increased from 23,4186 rubles. As of 01.08.2008 to 29,3804 rubles. As of 31.12.2008 (by 25.4% for 5 months); By 01.08.2009 the dollar was worth 31.1533 rubles. (33.1% - growth rate for 1 year).

These figures clearly show what impact the 2008 financial crisis has had on Russian finances. Recover from it our citizens could only a few years.

2009-2011

During this period, the Russian economy gradually recovered, and the financial market sought to return to its former positions. Despite the achieved stabilization of the ruble exchange rate and production growth, which has been outlined in individual industries, the ruble is gradually decreasing.

Of course, this process was not linear, but in general, the trend was quite obvious: at the beginning of 2010, the dollar was worth 30.1851 rubles, in 2011 - 30.3505 rubles, in 2012 - 32.1961 rubles. Thus, for 3 years the ruble has fallen in price by 6.68%. This dynamics was recognized as quite acceptable by everyone: both the Government of the Russian Federation and the population of the country. The question of what happens to the ruble, worried the Russians during this period is rather weak. As a result, the interest of Russian citizens to purchase foreign currency in cash has decreased, as well as to keep it in the form of bank deposits.

year 2012

Unfortunately, all good things come to an end: by May 2012, the ruble has begun to decline relative to the world's leading currencies. Thanks to the massive currency interventions of the Central Bank, as well as its repeated assurances about the stability of domestic finances, the fall of the exchange rate was then stopped. However, the dollar still went up by almost 2 rubles, and the euro - by 2.5.

The Russians again became interested in the question of what happens to the ruble. Today leading domestic economists and political scientists are inclined to explain the then falling of the national currency rate by the traditional reasons for our country:

• A decline in oil prices;
• Problems of the European economy;
• Fears of investors about a new wave of financial crisis.

At that time, a sharp reduction in the cost of the ruble in the press was interpreted as a necessary exchange rate dynamics, designed to revive the country's economy and prevent it from falling into stagnation. It was not easy to say who was right. However, regardless of the real reasons that caused the depreciation of national money, the population panicked buying cash dollars and euros, and investors rushed to urgently rescue their assets. Despite the continued export of capital from the country, the regulator managed to stabilize the ruble's exchange rate and keep it within the limits of the bi-currency basket: at the end of December 2012, the dollar was worth 30.3727 rubles, the euro - 40.2286 rubles.

year 2013

Throughout 2013 continued smooth fall of the exchange rate of our currency. Seeing the extremely negative reaction of the population to what is happening to the Russian ruble, the Central Bank once again resorted to a large-scale buying it to maintain the exchange rate. For these good purposes, about $ 28 billion was spent, but the exchange rate of the national currency to the bi-currency basket for the year fell by almost 3 rubles.

Obviously, this year was not the most successful for the ruble. However, optimists seriously predicted that the holding of the Sochi Olympics contributes to the stabilization of the exchange rate, due to the increase in the inflow of additional currency from the sports tourists. By the end of the year, even people who did not know any special financial problems were seriously worried about what was happening to the ruble. 2014, however, the majority of Russians met with the hope of stabilizing the course of our money, improving the state of the banking system and the forthcoming revival of the country's economy.

year 2014

The year began with not the happiest events for the Russian ruble: on January 15, the Central Bank moved the boundaries of the floating currency corridor up by 5 kopecks. In January, similar actions were repeated 6 times, and by the end of the month the bi-currency basket was already worth 41,0284 rubles. In February, this trend persisted, and on 26.02.2014 the historical exchange rate was renewed again. Then the value of the dual currency basket reached the threshold of 41.9952 rubles. For 2 months of the current year about $ 12 billion was spent on stabilizing the exchange rate of the domestic currency, which allowed bringing it to a certain equilibrium state.

Sport as a factor of course stabilization

Holding the Olympics partly slowed down the cheapening of the ruble. Positive news stories, a decrease in the degree of tension among Russians, as well as the increased inflow of foreign currency into the country allowed the regulator to keep the exchange rate of the Russian currency at an acceptable level without additional interventions. And in April the ruble bravely tried to win back its positions. By the beginning of the May Day holidays, the bi-currency basket already cost 41,8409 rubles. Thus, for 4 months of the current year, the value of the dual currency basket increased by 9.4%.

According to the forecast of the editor of the information section of Forbes magazine Ivan Vasiliev, given to them in early January, for the year 2014, the ruble exchange rate to the bi-currency basket will drop by about 7.5 rubles. (Or by 20%). If the existing ratio is maintained in the dollar / euro pair, the ruble exchange rate in relation to both currencies will fall by the same 20%.

Factors affecting the course dynamics

What is happening now with the ruble, was not even in the darkest forecasts. Leading analysts urgently review the calculations of the value of the national currency, made by them at the end of last year. However, there are factors directly affecting the ruble exchange rate, but not quantifiable.

The continuing events in the southeast of Ukraine, the negative attitude of some European and American politicians towards the position taken by Russia on this issue, make the introduction of various sanctions against our country quite possible. As the domestic economy is already deeply integrated into the world economy, it can significantly shake the stability of the Russian banking system and lower the rate of the domestic currency. What happens to the ruble is understandable - it gradually becomes cheaper. What will happen to his course tomorrow, almost nobody can predict.

Western view of the Russian currency

Our main problems, according to IMF experts, are today a tense geopolitical situation, the possibility of imposing harsh sanctions from Western financial institutions, accelerating inflation, and a budget deficit. It is declared that the Russian economy has creepily crawled into a recession, so the forecasts of most foreign experts regarding the prospects of our currency are unhappy. After the rating agency S & P downgraded Russia's sovereign credit rating to BBB-, it became obvious to everyone that further devaluation of the ruble is not only possible but inevitable.

Long-term projections from Russian financial gurus

Today, almost none of the officials of our country can clearly explain to citizens what is happening to the ruble. Forecasts of most experts concerning the coming months of 2014 are that the ruble will continue its traditional decline. Strictly speaking, the main discussions are only about its pace. Obviously, to keep the ruble rate within the framework provided for by the 3-year budget (2014 - 33.40 rubles, 2015 - 34.30 rubles and 2016 - 34.90 rubles) will not succeed, because to End of April 2014, the dollar was worth 35.70 rubles. And in early March, the dollar has already managed to take the bar in 36 rubles, and the euro broke the historic maximum of 50 rubles.

Head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina confirmed on 25.04.2014 in an interview with Ren-TV that the regulator does not intend to implement large-scale intervention in the foreign exchange market. What the current situation is with the ruble, the Central Bank calls the necessary correction. Most likely, the transition to a floating ruble exchange rate will be implemented not by early 2015, as it was previously declared, but in the summer of 2014.