Average annual population. Calculation formula

Statistics help researchers evaluate the processes that occur in the system. Different factors can be grouped, compared with other similar categories. The population and the processes taking place in the social sphere are studied by statistics quite thoroughly. After all, this reflects on the global level the existing demographic situation.

The average annual population is involved in many economic studies at the macro level. Therefore, this important category of data is constantly monitored, recalculations are carried out. The importance of the indicator, as well as the methods for carrying out the analysis, is considered in the article.

Population

To be able to determine the average annual population of a city, district or country, it is necessary to understand the essence of the subject of the study. The demographic situation can be viewed from different angles.

The population is the whole number of people who live within the boundaries of a certain territory. To analyze the demographic situation, this indicator is considered in terms of natural reproduction (fertility and mortality) and migration. Also examine the structure of the population (by age, sex, economic and social level, etc.). Also, data on demography show how the resettlement of people across the territory has changed.

The population is studied by statistics using general and special methods. This allows us to make full, deep conclusions about the development of demographic indicators.

Directions of analysis

The average annual population is estimated using different characteristics of the grouping, depending on the purpose of the analysis. The demographic picture that has developed over a certain period of time in a particular territory can be considered in terms of the dynamics of the total population.

To understand why these or other changes occurred, it is necessary to evaluate the natural movement, the migration of people. To do this, relevant data are involved in the analysis. To have a full idea of the population grouping, the formation of the total number of people, they are classified according to certain characteristics.

For example, the study shows how many women and men live in a certain territory, what age they are, how many people from the able-bodied population have qualifications, the highest level of education.

Calculation formula

To make the recount of the population, different formulas are used. But sometimes the calculation is complicated by the collection of data for several time intervals. If there is information at the beginning and end of the period, the average annual population (formula) is as follows:

CHNreds. = (NN.n. + NN.c.) / 2, where NNsred. - Average population, NN.n. - number of population at the beginning of the period, CZK. - number at the end of the period.

If the statistics were collected for each month of the study period, the formula would be:

CHNreds. = (0,5ЧН1 + ЧН2 ... ЧНп-1 + 0,5ЧНп) (п-1), where ЧН1, ЧН2 ... ЧНп-1 - the number of the population at the beginning of the month, п - the number of months.

Data for analysis

The average annual population, the formula of which was presented above, takes a number of data for calculation. It is necessary to calculate the constant number of people living in this territory (MP). It includes the actual number of people who actually live in the study area (NN).

In addition to this indicator, in order to study the demographic state of the country, the category of the temporarily resident population (EP) is taken into account. Also temporarily absent people (VO) take part in the calculation. Only this figure is subtracted from the total amount. The formula for the resident population is as follows:

ПН = НН + ВП - ВО.

To distinguish between the index of EP and LV, take into account the time interval of 6 months. If a group of people live in the study area for more than six months, they are referred to cash, and less than six months - to the temporary population.

Population census

The average annual number of a resident population is calculated on the basis of the population census data. But this process requires considerable time, effort and money. Therefore, it is not possible to conduct a census every month or even a year.

Therefore, in the intervals between the recalculation of the number of people in a certain territory, a logical calculation system is used. They collect statistical data on births and deaths, migration movements. But over time, a certain error in the indicators accumulates.

Therefore, in order to correctly determine the average annual population, it is still necessary to conduct a periodic census.

Application of analysis data

Calculation of the average annual population is carried out for the purpose of further research of demographic processes. The result of the analysis is used in calculating the mortality and fertility rates, natural reproduction. They are calculated in the context of each age group.

Also, the average population is applicable when assessing the number of able-bodied and economically active population. At the same time, a set of people who have left or arrived in the territory of a country or region through migration can be considered. This makes it possible to assess the potential of the entire workforce concentrated here.

The correct distribution of labor resources is the key to the economic development of the state. Therefore, the importance of counting the number of people is difficult to overestimate.

Natural movement of the population

The average annual population, the formula for calculating which was discussed above, is involved in the evaluation of various demographic indicators. One of them is the natural movement of the population. It is due to the natural processes of fertility and mortality.

During the year, the average number of people increases by the number of newborns and decreases by the number of people who died. This is the natural course of life. With respect to the average population, the coefficients of natural motion are found. If the birth rate exceeds the death rate, there is an increase (and vice versa).

Also, when carrying out this analysis, the population is broken down into age categories. So it is determined in which group there was a high mortality rate. This allows us to draw a conclusion about the standard of living in the territory under study, and the social security of citizens.

Migration

The indicator of the number of inhabitants can vary not only due to natural processes. People leave to work or, on the contrary, come to work. If such immigrants are or are not present on the investigated object for more than 6 months, this is necessarily taken into account in the analysis.

Significant migration flows affect the economy. The labor market varies with both a decrease and an increase in the number of able-bodied residents.

The average annual population will help to find both a growth factor and a reduction in the supply of labor in the region. If too much flow of emigrants arrives in the country, the unemployment rate will rise . Reducing the number of able-bodied population leads to a budget deficit, a reduction in pensions, salaries of doctors, teachers, etc. Therefore, to monitor the migration movement, the indicator is also very necessary.

Economic activity

In addition to changes in the quantitative ratio of the entire population of the country or area, structural analysis is necessarily carried out. Usually, according to the level of income, three classes of the population are distinguished.

The average annual number of economically active population makes it possible to assess the purchasing power of inhabitants, their standard of living. In developed countries, most of the society is made up of people with average incomes. They can acquire the necessary food, things, periodically make major acquisitions, travel.

In such states there is a small percentage of very rich and poor people. If the number of residents with low incomes significantly increases, a large financial burden falls on the budget. This reduces the overall standard of living.

All groups of the economically active population are represented as coefficients relative to the average annual population.

Probabilistic tables

To determine the average annual population without a census, the method of constructing probabilistic tables is used. The fact is that most demographic processes can be predicted in advance. This concerns the natural movement of the population.

The table is based on several statements. The natural movement is irreversible, because you can not die and be born twice. Only once you can give birth to the first child. A certain order of events is necessarily taken into account. For example, you can not enter into a second marriage, if you did not register the first.

The population is divided into age groups. For each of them the probability of occurrence of this or that event is different. Next, the number of people in each category is analyzed.

With the passage of time, people with a certain degree of probability move into this or that group. So the forecast is made. For example, that category of the population that is in working age will become pensioners. Therefore, analysts can predict how many people will join the next group.

Planning

Planning at the macroeconomic level can not be done without statistical data. The average annual number of active population is taken into account when studying the standard of living, purchasing power, and also when developing the main economic document of the country (budget).

The amount of its incomes and expenses can not be predicted without taking into account the number and structure of the inhabitants of the country. The more people work in the non-budgetary sphere, the higher the level of their income, the greater will be the infusions into budget funds.

If analysts determine the drop in input flows in the future, it is necessary to develop measures to improve the situation. Each state has its own apparatus for managing demographic resources. By creating new jobs, pursuing a sound social policy, raising the standard of living of the population, it is possible to make the country prosperous.

Analysis and planning of the demographic situation are made with the mandatory application of average annual population figures, as well as other structural coefficients. Therefore, the adequacy of planning the country's budget depends on the correctness of data collection and their study.

Considering such a concept as the average number of the population, one can understand the importance of this indicator for macroeconomic analysis and planning. Many forecasts for the future of the country, region or city are built after the proper collection and processing of relevant information. This is a necessary action when drawing up a budget plan and a host of other important financial documents.