What will happen to Ukraine when the Nord Stream-2 is built?

In 2019, the commissioning of the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline is planned. The history of the construction of the first line of this highway proves that this term will be met, especially since in the project, in addition to Gazprom, another half a dozen companies are extremely interested in the possibility of pumping blue fuel from Russia to Europe. The consequences of this event are predictable. Supplying consumers will become even cheaper and more reliable, but there is also a side effect - transit countries that are getting guaranteed income today will suffer, and considerable. In particular, the Ukrainian gas transportation system will become practically unnecessary.

Price history

For many years, Ukraine received Russian natural gas at almost a symbolic price, which was about $ 50 per thousand cubic meters, which enabled the country to enjoy many privileges. The cost of production of energy-intensive industries favorably allocated it in a competitive market, and the population paid a small number of meters, although it did not understand its own happiness. Then came the "orange times", and attempts were made to reduce the price, and to increase transit fees, that is, to bring economic relations "to fair world standards". At the same time, the somewhat inflated self-confidence of the Kiev chiefs was struck, demanding that an interpreter from Russian to Ukrainian, and even just discounts, without any argumentation. Is it worthwhile to clarify that each such attempt resulted in an increase in the price, usually twice, until Tymoshenko signed the contract that had glorified her. Since then, relations between Russia and Ukraine in terms of gas supply have become the same as with the rest of Europe, that is, absolutely equal.

Throughput and loading of the Ukrainian GTS

The gas transmission system of Ukraine went to the same way as many other things, inherited from the now cursed by the authorities of the Soviet past. Its main indicator is throughput, that is, the amount of product that can be pumped through the "pipe" in a year in a western direction. It is 288 billion cubic meters. M per year, built a system with the Soviet scope. At full capacity, the GTS has not loaded for a long time, so in 2007 115 passed through it, and in 1012 only 81 billion cubic meters. Recently, a major achievement was announced, an increase in pumping in 2015 by 7.9% compared to the previous reporting period. In quantitative terms, the figure was 64.14 billion cubic meters plus another 2.92 billion for Moldova (and, obviously, Transnistria, too). This figure is important for assessing the possibilities of Nord Stream-2.

Pipe as a weapon

Kiev often reproached Moscow, and, we must pay tribute, not only after Maidan, but long before him, in that it uses natural gas as a weapon. Of course, it was not about burning patriots alive in a raging blue hydrocarbon flame, this expression had a figurative meaning. Say, those countries that are well treated with Russia, fuel is released at a low price, and others who are trying to vex a neighbor in every way, that is, who have taken the path of Western democracy, do not get such preferences. This practice was called vicious, and many European politicians (not to mention American senators and presidents) urged Moscow to act differently, and it is best to do the opposite. But the pipe, as it turned out, can also be used as a weapon. As it is clear from the statement of Yury Vitrenko, the director for development of Naftogaz of Ukraine on December 30, 2015, he believes that Gazprom is underpaying for transit, and therefore the tariff should be raised. Three times. The Kiev chief called this decision "a worthy response" to the "long-term efforts" of the Russian concern to bypass Ukraine.

However, the problems were before, both under Yushchenko, and under Kuchma.

"Hot zone"

In principle, both Europe and Russia do not like the presence of intermediate gas on the way, especially if it becomes hot on this site. Gas - the product is explosive, its pumping requires calm and proper temperature regime. If a pipe is fired around, then this causes some concern, both the sender and the receiver. On this unhappy background, the idea arose to build the first "Nord Stream" away from the risky zone. First, this project in Ukraine for some reason was considered a bluff, but the pipeline was built quickly. Now here is the second branch planned, and not just in words. There was an idea and the "South Stream" lay under the waters of the Black Sea, but has not yet grown together. Relations with Turkey have deteriorated, without it you can not do, and yes. It is important to estimate the figure, again bandwidth.

Design productivity

For the construction of the Nord Stream-2, a joint stock company New European Pipeline AG was established, in which BASF / Wintershall, Shell, E.ON, OMV (with 10% each), ENGIE (9%) participate, and control belongs to Gazprom (The remaining 51%). The volume of investments is 9 billion 900 million euros. The agreement on participation was signed in Vladivostok on September 4 last year during the Eastern Economic Forum. The capacity of the gas pipeline (2 lines) will be 55 billion cubic meters. M per year, this is 28.7% of the total volume of supplies of the concern "Gazprom" to Europe at the moment. It's time to remember the figure of the volume of the pumping of the Ukrainian GTS in 2015, it's just over 67 million cubic meters. M. Nothing, there will still be millions of twelve, even more.

Gas spring

Before leaving the post of premier, Yatsenyuk listed his victories ("pheremogy"), one of which was withdrawal from gas dependence. In his lies this time you can not blame, and although in Russia fuel is still purchased, but really much less. This stunning result is achieved in two ways, and both are very simple. First, the supplies are now "reverse", that is, they go back, back. This means that the EU bought, but not consumed, gas comes again to the territory of Ukraine, and is likely even simply pumped out of Ukrainian storage facilities (why drive it back and forth?). At the same time, there are no "tags" (again Yatseniuk is the author of the aphorism), and it seems impossible to determine the country of origin, although it is clear to everyone that fuel is coming from. And secondly, consumption has greatly decreased. But you should not rejoice over it.

Reducing Ukrainian consumption

If three years ago, Ukraine consumed 70 billion cubic meters. M of gas per year, but now less than two times. No, this is not the result of introducing energy-saving technologies or applying green "green" production methods (although there are some cases). Everything is much simpler. Reduction of industrial energy requirements is caused by the economic crisis and the general stagnation of the real sector. And even with winters lucky, they were warm. This really can be considered real independence. If you do not need something, then it's good. As long as a person is healthy, young and full of energy, he needs everything - restaurants, cars, travel, tasty, though not very diet food and even alcoholic drinks, and some even give presents to his beloved. And if someone grows old or gets sick, or both, then everything he needs is cheap: a bit of semolina porridge on the water and a thin gull. Saving!

A bit of futurism

And now you can try to mentally move like science fiction writers into the future, close, however, in 2019, that is, at the time when the construction of the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline is over. Agrarian superpower Ukraine is drowning with dung, the firewood is already over, but the industry is no more. The last source of income, namely transit, is exhausted. For the remaining dozen million cubic meters, it is possible to raise the tariff three times, but this will not become easier. There is no gas from Europe, they have already stopped lending, and there is nothing to pay. The gloomy picture is supplemented by tires burning on Khreshchatyk, which also end. I would like someone to reassure ...