What is exit poll? Understand

The phrase exit poll has become quite popular these days, especially in periods coinciding with the elections. But what does it mean?

Let's turn to dictionaries

Exit in English means exit, poll - vote counting, voting. Consequently, both words together can be treated as voting when leaving the site.

Russian writing of this phrase has not yet settled. In the press and other sources there are various options - from "exitpole" to "excite-poll". But the latter, though it is registered in the Lopatin orthographic dictionary, seems the least successful. In English, not "with", but "z" is pronounced, and doubling the letter "l" seems inappropriate. Therefore, it seems to many reasonable to write this phrase in general in English.

Why all this is necessary

The procedure for polling the population after the vote in recent years has been intensively used in the sociological practice of various states of the world. On condition of anonymity, voters who have just left the premises of the polling station are asked who they voted for. It is assumed that most respondents have no reason to lie, accordingly the results of interviews should show an approximate picture of the outcome of the elections and may to some extent perform the monitoring function. In addition, these data allow the accumulation and analysis of information on the electorate (which sections of the population prefer each candidate). Another task that the exit poll allows to solve is an operational forecast of the voting results. And, finally, in the election process, the polls are widely covered by television and the press. This increases the spectacle of the electoral process and draws the attention of all segments of the population to it.

From the survey history

The first clarification of the opinion of those who voted on leaving the polling station was held in 1967 in the United States (the Governor of Kentucky was elected ). In 1972, the exit poll was held on a nationwide scale when choosing the American president. The methodology of this event was developed and tested by U. Mitofsky, director of the Center for Elections and Public Opinion Poll. Over the following years, this center was reorganized several times, resulting in the formation of Mitofsky International, which began to conduct similar surveys in other countries. Such clarification of the will of citizens quickly gained popularity, as they gave important information to the organizers. And, what is especially valuable, in the countries of several time zones (the USA, Russia) the speed of data acquisition in the voted regions allowed the electoral headquarters to react to the situation in those districts where elections had not yet taken place, perhaps even to correct their strategy. That is, polls were a real tool for influencing the electoral process.

Believe it or not?

However, not all researchers believe that exit poll is a successful tool for verifying the transparency of elections. The reasons for not trusting the polls at the output are somewhat. First, how honest are the people who gave the answer? In conditions of full democracy, they probably should be believed, but people are often afraid to tell the truth or refuse to answer at all. It is also necessary to take into account the mentality of the population, its readiness to make contact. So, there are cases when people who asked questions during the Russian presidential elections shared their impressions in social networks. Their answers were often rudeness or statements like: "Voted for Chuck Norris." Is it possible to say in such a situation that the survey data will reflect the real picture of the vote?

And here is another interesting consideration of Russian sociologists. If the credibility of the election system in the country is high enough, then in such polls, as in the control of voting, society does not need much. If there is no special trust in the government, and there are suggestions of possible falsification of the elections, then who will prevent the exit poll in the same way?

And again on the same topic

So what is exit poll - a blessing for society or a useless undertaking? The opponents of such polls have many arguments. Now before the elections it is customary to conduct preliminary population surveys (often with the help of Internet technologies). But such information, promulgated before the vote, can seriously affect its outcome. The voter, who saw that his candidate does not use the rating, can change his decision, and even completely ignore the election. Of course, such a situation can not be considered correct. In addition, there is a great temptation to manipulate survey data to create a situation that is convenient for one of the candidates.

And yet, to such polls, the ratio is more likely with a plus sign than minus, and their data is trusted. So, in Ukraine in the process of presidential elections in 2004 a real scandal arose due to the discrepancy between exit poll data conducted by various sociological centers, as well as with official results of voting. The scandal ended with the first Maidan and the third round of presidential elections, which showed a completely different result. But at the elections of the President of Ukraine in 2014, the actual result of voting almost completely coincided with the results of the polls. So exit poll is interesting.