Why does the price of oil fall? World oil prices

Many specialists have been wondering for some time over the past few years about why the price of oil is falling and how long the "bearish" sentiment lasts. During the last five years, 4 global falls were recorded in the oil market. "Bear" cycles were repeated 14 times, and this is from the beginning of 2000. Despite the instability of the situation, the price per barrel has always returned safely to the starting point.

The most massive fall in oil prices in the 21st century

Global drops in oil prices in the history of the market could be traced to the history of the quotation WITI, which, from 2011, replaced the brand of fuel Brent. There are only five:

1. year 2001. By January 19, 2001, the cost of oil was 32.2 dollars. By November 5, 2001, the value dropped to $ 17.5. For 10 months the price of a barrel decreased by 48.5 percent.

2. 2006 year. On July 14, 2006, the price per barrel of oil was $ 77. Already on January 18 next year the price reached $ 50.5. Within 6 months, the price fell by 34.5%.

3. Summer of 2008. In 2008, on July 3, the price per barrel was equal to 145.3 dollars. After 2.5 months, namely on September 16, the next low was registered on the indicator - 91.2 dollars.

4. Autumn of the year 2008. By September 22, after the recent fall, oil fell back to the level of $ 120.9, and by December 19, the stop was at a price of $ 33.9. In just three months the cost of a barrel of oil fell by 71.9%.

5. Spring of 2011. April 29, 2011 the price reached 113, 93 dollars per barrel. But on October 4, on the daily chart, a new minimum was already set at $ 75.67. The fall lasted 5 months, the price fell by 33.58%.

Why is the price of oil falling and how will the situation develop in 2015?

Oil is the base of all energy carriers, on which almost the entire civilization is built. Without gasoline, kerosene and diesel fuel to present a modern society is simply impossible. That is why the question of why the price of oil is falling is not a serious concern not only for economic analysts, but also for most people in the world. The situation is of interest to almost every expert in this matter.

Special attention is paid to oil prices by residents of Russia. This is due to the fact that the fall in the cost of fuel led to a depreciation of the ruble. The dollar is actively growing, and the ruble just collapsed. People stop saving. They either invest money in buying household appliances or improving their living conditions, or transferring liabilities to foreign currency at a far from profitable rate.

Despite last year's forecasts, today oil prices are falling. 2014 ended another decline in the cost of a barrel. The long-awaited reversal of the trend did not take place, the situation remains unclear.

Analytics in figures

World oil prices Brent (this brand is one of the most popular, according to the movement of its price, a general market analysis is being done) in January-February 2014 stopped at $ 107 per barrel. In the first days of October, one barrel of oil could be bought for only $ 90. This is an important reason for panic in the states whose economic activities are based on the export of energy. At this price, the situation did not stabilize, and by December 11 the price chart has drawn a new low - $ 64. Today, customers are willing to give fuel for no more than 59.5 dollars. It turns out a very interesting situation. The demand for fuel is systematically increasing, and the price is falling.

The reasons for the fall in prices in the world - the policy of OPEC

Unequivocally answer the question: "Why is the price of oil falling?" Is problematic. The situation was formed by comparing several factors simultaneously, which, according to economists, were created artificially.

The price of oil per barrel has changed significantly due to the policies of the OPEC member states. The amount of oil produced increases day by day. In August 2014 a record was reached. The volume of oil produced was 30.5 million barrels per day. Over the past 5 months, this indicator has remained at a stable level. Previously, the daily rate of oil production was 30 million barrels. The increase in production by 0.5 million, combined with other factors, had a significant impact on the collapse of the market.

Libya, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait: the impact on the oil market

Venezuela, Iran and four other states that are part of OPEC warned about the coming fall in prices. According to experts, a significant increase in the cost of a barrel is possible with a reduction in the volume of fuel production by only 415,000 barrels. As a result of the refusal to reduce production from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, the situation has escalated. The voices of states have become decisive, since it is to Saudi Arabia that there are about 300 million additional barrels of oil. The situation was aggravated by the economic reconstruction of Libya, which finally withdrew from the martial law and again joined the number of dominant players in the oil market.

The role of the US in the formation of prices in the oil market

The fall in oil prices was caused by actions on the part of America, since there is a fairly large number of deposits of this mineral on its territory. The government of the state, in order to avoid a deficit, issued a law banning the export of raw fuel. At the same time, the United States has been a major consumer of oil in the world for decades. Huge amounts of fuel, which the country bought up, supported the cost of fuel. The price of oil per barrel remained at a fairly high level.

The decline in oil prices in September 2014 coincided with the increase in fuel production in America. The daily rate of production stopped at the level of 8.7 million barrels. According to analysts' forecasts, in the coming months the figure will increase to 9.5 million barrels. As a result, oil prices are falling, the main consumer has left the arena. Moreover, having found loopholes in the legislation, large companies began to export their fuel to the world market. This volume of oil produced has not been in the country since 1987.

Diagonal "overproduction - consumption"

The fall in oil prices has become a real blow to the economies of states that live off energy. The daily fuel consumption is 92 million barrels. In connection with the deficit in the world fuel market, its price was at a fairly high level. A sharp jump in the extractive industry to the level of 93.8 million barrels led to overproduction. The result is quite obvious. When the goods are more than buyers, its price is reduced by reducing demand. While the effective extraction of fuel continues, the situation will only worsen.

The growth of the dollar affected the cost of oil

The fall in oil prices was also affected by a sharp increase in the dollar. This is due to the fact that the price for a barrel is calculated in the American currency. With a stable supply and demand in the oil market, the price remains static. If we consider that the dollar rate is constantly changing in relation to the world's currencies, the situation described above on the market is from the realm of fantasy. As a result of the appreciation of the dollar, there is a drop in oil prices, since an expensive dollar allows you to buy more fuel. The fall of the dollar leads to an increase in the price of oil, since one barrel will have to be put out more than the US currency. Some countries refuse to sell their oil for dollars. Companies to buy fuel change the currency, which causes the increase in supply and stimulates its fall. It is rare that world oil and dollar prices rise in price simultaneously. This is due to the fact that the situation should be accompanied by a decline in the level of employment in America and good economic performance.