When will the dollar fall? How to analyze the situation in the foreign exchange market and understand: the dollar will fall or rise?

The US dollar against the ruble in recent years is very volatile: after the crisis of 2008-2009. The US currency fell in price significantly. In 2013 and early 2014 - has grown again. Market experts believe that the situation, as well as the answer to the question of whether the dollar will fall, is affected by a whole range of factors, both economic and political.

The price of oil

According to one of the points of view, the dollar-ruble exchange rate in 2014 will vary greatly. The sharp increase in the US currency may be accompanied by a smooth recovery of the positions of the Russian banknotes. The ruble's exchange rate, according to experts, largely depends on oil prices. The higher it is, the weaker the dollar. If the cost of oil falls, the Russian government, in order to compensate for a drawdown in the budget, devalues the ruble in order to help out with the export of "black gold" more.

At the same time, positive macroeconomic statistics coming from the US, as well as the gradual exit of the EU from a long recession, indicate that the cost of oil will remain at a high enough level (about $ 100 per barrel). The exchange rate of the ruble, therefore, is supported by the stability of Western economies. In 2014, if oil prices sharply take a course to decline, the Russian currency after this will fall in price against the US currency. If on the contrary - it will only wait until the dollar falls.

Ruble is not weak

There is a point of view that the Russian ruble, on the whole, is not a weak currency at all. According to the estimates of the supporters of this thesis, the national bank note of our country in real terms has strengthened by 60% over the past 10 years. If, for example, citizens have kept savings in rubles all these years, they have clearly won. At the same time, such a strengthening of the Russian currency, as economists believe, sooner or later will be played by the market. Despite the large volumes of fuel exports, the influx of net money (in the form of salaries, transfers) to the country is not high. The Russian economy, by the same token, can experience this problem, and the ruble, as a consequence, will return the dollar to "the debt" of past years.

But still "wooden"

Some experts believe that the ruble is a currency in respect of which it is difficult to have confidence: how the dollar behaves, the Russian bank will fall or rise, it is problematic to foresee. Suffice it to recall the 1990s, when the ruble could turn into a worthless "paper" at the most inopportune moment. Too many factors traditionally affect the rate of the Russian currency: these are oil prices, the Central Bank's policy with regard to the banking system, and the behavior of private bureaus themselves.

Forecasts for 2014 do not exclude that the ruble is devalued - in large part because Russia joined the WTO, as a result of which the share of imports may grow, and domestic production - to decline. There are figures: by the end of 2013, the euro rate reached 45 rubles, although back in 2012, such a figure was considered impossible. Therefore, it is impossible to exclude the increase in the rate of up to 50 units of the Russian currency for a single European currency. In turn, in the US economy in recent years there are signs of stabilization, and experts on the dollar are more optimistic.

There is no speculation

Despite the fact that market experts remain pessimistic about the ruble, no one particularly advises investing in the US currency as a kind of savings. There is a version that the population artificially frighten the custom articles of economists, as well as the heating of various rumors and gossip with the sole purpose - to provoke the purchase of as much of the American currency by the citizens of Russia. Real "owners" of bank notes are not speculators, but central banks. They decide when the dollar will fall, and when it grows up.

There is an interesting point of view: if the Russians can somehow influence our Central Bank, which is still working, rather respecting the interests of the oligarchs, rather than the people, the "buck" may fall to 30 rubles by the end of 2014. Also, some experts emphasize - even if there is a sharp deterioration in the economic situation, at the disposal of the state is the Reserve Fund, where "stored" about 5 trillion rubles. This is enough to cover a very large budget deficit.

Optimistic view

According to a number of experts, in the course of currency trading in recent months there have been stages when the Central Bank of Russia did not conduct any currency interventions at all. The rate of national banknotes, therefore, fell into the so-called "neutral corridor", when the Central Bank is not important: the dollar will grow or fall. The value of the "bi-currency basket" at that time did not exceed the value of the Central Bank critically significant at 41 rubles. There are fundamental and speculative factors of the further behavior of the Russian currency against the dollar and the euro.

Concerning the first - there is a significant increase in the balance of foreign trade balance of Russia. This is largely due to the improvement in the financial situation of the Eurozone countries, which are the main economic partners of our country. The ECB forecasts that the region's GDP may grow by 1.1% by the end of 2014. As a result, there may be an increase in demand for fuel resources from Russia, as well as an increase in their price. In addition, the weakening of the ruble against the dollar and the euro, which occurred in 2014, in fact, has improved the trade balance of our country through active import substitution. So it's not a fact that the Russian business is sitting and waiting for the dollar to fall.

Figures from the state

The Ministry of Economic Development of Russia predicts that the ruble (in real effective terms) in 2014 will weaken by 7.4% (while some time ago the calculation was at a cheaper price of 1.5%). This figure was announced at the highest ministerial level. In 2015, the Russian currency may, according to the Ministry of Economic Development, strengthen by 0.2%, in 2016 - by 1.1%, and a little more in 2017 - by 0.1%. The exchange rate of the ruble to the dollar in 2014, according to the agency, will be 36.3 units in the average annual expression (against 33.9 on the previous calculation). In 2015, one "buck" is expected to cost 38.8 Russian banknotes, in 2016, almost the same number - 38.7, in 2017, too, without much change - 38.5.

The Ministry of Economic Development also believes that the average annual price of barrel of barrel oil Urals will increase to 104 dollars, and in 2015-2016. Will drop to 100 units of the American currency. In 2017, "black gold", according to the forecasts of the department, will drop to $ 98 per barrel. The state probably does not wonder when the dollar will fall in price.

Figures from analysts

According to the current forecasts of the investment bank UBS, the Russian economy will grow by only 1.5% in 2014 (while in the previous calculations the figure was 2.5%), in 2015 - by 2% (before that, 2 ,8%). Due to the reassessment of the vision of the financial situation in our country, analysts of this credit organization expect that the "bi-currency basket" mentioned above will cost 44.2 rubles by the end of 2014 (before that the indicator was called 40.7 units of the Russian currency).

Regarding the dollar and the euro, by the end of 2014, UBS analysts expect that 1 unit of US currency will cost 1.25 European banknotes. This roughly corresponds to the forecasts for the ruble (37.6 per dollar by December 2014). In 2015, the euro in relation to the "bucks", according to UBS, will fall in price to the level of 1.20. Analysts of the bank expect that the Russian Central Bank will not interfere in the currency trading, but do not rule out that the monetary policy of the Central Bank will tighten. But in their forecasts there is almost no place for theses about the development of our country's economy, when the dollar's rate will fall.

The Ukrainian factor

Russian experts do not ignore the situation in Ukraine and the behavior of the dollar in relation to the national currency of the neighboring country - the hryvnia. The International Monetary Fund sees a reasonable course in the form of 10.5-11 units of this banknote to the "bucks". There is also a pessimistic scenario, in which the dollar may rise in price to 12-13 hryvnia. Among the reasons are the increase in gas prices for Ukraine, the deterioration of the trade partnership with Russia, which can provoke a deficit in the country's balance of payments and lead to devaluation of the hryvnia. Important factor of the policy of the IMF itself.

If the fund issues a loan to Ukraine, the country's national currency against the dollar may strengthen. Tranche from the IMF is able to become a positive signal for investors from abroad and entrepreneurs. One of the other positive indicators is the mood of the leaders of Russia and the United States to help resolve the situation in the country through diplomatic channels. But the political game is too complicated to know for certain whether the dollar will fall in Ukraine.

Careful predictions

Experts say that it is not difficult to understand how the dollar will behave in relation to the "tomorrow's rate", thanks to the fact that the Central Bank of Russia publishes the exchange rate of the current day as official for tomorrow. It is much more difficult to make long-term forecasts and say unequivocally, when the dollar or euro falls, it is impossible. The exchange rate of the US currency against the Russian one depends very much on two groups of factors. First, it is the strength of the ruble as such. It depends on the situation within the Russian economy and political processes. Secondly - the dollar's rate to other world currencies (primarily, the euro), whose predictions are not easy to predict. Therefore, analysts do not advise market players to rely too much on long-term forecasts about the behavior of the American banknote.