Is it worth taking a mortgage now? Is it profitable to take a mortgage now?

The economic situation in Russia is now quite complicated, and many citizens think about how to ensure the safety of savings by investing them in buying an apartment. Some expect to invest in real estate at the expense of personal funds, others rely on bank loans. But is it worth borrowing a mortgage now? Perhaps there are more appropriate ways of investing?

Mortgage in crisis: two groups of indicators

To answer the question of whether to take a mortgage now, when Russia has a difficult economic situation, it will be useful to start by analyzing what are the key components of the banking crisis, which so many analysts say. Then we will try to determine how much the EU and US sanctions against Russia are to blame for this situation - it is they who are asked to play a key role in the fact that crisis trends have emerged in the Russian economy.

So, what are the problems in the national banking system of Russia? Experts identify two main groups of crisis indicators, which, in turn, are formed under the influence of a large number of diverse factors.

Solvency crisis

The first crisis indicator: the solvency of the population is declining. People simply can not afford to make out new loans. This, in turn, is associated with the following main factors.

First, with the growth of inflation, the increase in prices for most consumer goods, especially imported products. The most noticeable increase in the cost of household appliances. And this despite the fact that the real salary, if it grows, it is not in commensurate proportions. Also, prices for housing and communal services, transport are steadily growing. Result: citizens do not have free funds to service loans.

Secondly, this is the crediting of a significant part of citizens. Many not so much think about whether it is worth taking a mortgage now, how much over how to repay previous loans. Very many Russians have difficulties in repaying their current debt.

Now let's try to determine how the economic sanctions against Russia influenced the emergence of the first crisis indicator. Regarding the first factor, there is probably an influence. The rise in price of products experts associate with the food embargo of the Russian Federation against European suppliers - and this is somehow connected with sanctions. This is the Russian response to them. Regarding the second factor - most likely, the fault of sanctions here is relative. The fact is that most of the loans were issued by Russians long before the complication of the political situation.

Probably, we will also be entitled to note that both factors that form the corresponding indicator are interrelated. The rise in price of products and services, obviously, further limits the solvency of a potential borrower, provided that it has loans.

The crisis in banks

The second crisis indicator: the deterioration of the situation in banks, as a result - the inability of credit and financial institutions to issue loans, including mortgage loans, and to offer them on conditions that are comfortable for the consumer. Factors of the current situation, in turn, are as follows.

First, banks now have very limited free capital. In order to give something to borrowers, banks should have something. Liquidity of Russian credit institutions by many experts is estimated as not high.

Secondly, banks, oddly enough, are in a similar situation with borrowers - in the aspect of credit. The fact is that they themselves owe a lot to foreign creditors, the Russian Central Bank.

In turn, let's try to determine whether sanctions are to blame for the current situation? Many experts believe that this is so. Why? Supporters of this point of view emphasize that a significant part of Russian credit and financial institutions are debtors of foreign creditors. In the years prior to the sanctions, they actively carried out foreign loans, taking advantage of the interest conditions on interest. The repayment of debts was largely assumed at the expense of refinancing mechanisms - at the expense of new foreign loans. Now, when in the conditions of sanctions Russian banks have practically lost the opportunity to be credited abroad, financiers need to look for new sources for payments. Many credit institutions, analysts say, do not have their own reserves for this. And even more so do not have the capital to issue it as loans.

In the priority - the situation in banks?

Forecasts about how the mortgage will develop, what to expect from the market, largely depend, analysts believe, after all on the actual state of affairs in banks. The aspect reflecting the activity of potential borrowers is secondary at this stage. Even if the Russians had no problems with solvency, dictated by price increases (especially - on electronics and other imported goods) and the lack of real wage growth, the situation in the banking industry itself is too far from optimal so that the mortgage market develops as actively as in the The last few years, economists believe.

To be reimbursed on percentages

Most likely, analysts believe, if banks want to actively lend to citizens in times of crisis, they will do so by significantly raising interest rates. Or by tightening the criteria for approving the loan. Thus, it is possible a scenario in which a person does not even have to think about whether to take a mortgage now. Most likely, the bank simply can not provide a loan on comfortable terms. Or even refuse in the application due to internal crisis reasons. Does it make sense now to take a mortgage when the situation in banks is far from optimal? Many experts believe that such decisions are not yet justified.

If the application is approved

Consider a successful scenario - for example, a Russian person does not have problems with current loans, he has a high salary, and the bank, in principle, is ready to provide him with a loan for the purchase of housing. Is it worth borrowing this citizen now? The answer to this question can be given, based on the study of the key aspect of the forthcoming transaction: will it not turn out that after the purchase of the apartment after a while it will fall in price so much that a mortgage will prove to be unprofitable for a person?

In this aspect, when deciding whether it is worth taking a mortgage now, it is more expedient to study the market not so much from the point of view of the crisis situation in banks and sanctions, but rather in terms of analyzing trends reflecting the dynamics of real estate purchase and sale. Of course, the political situation here plays some role. But the key factor in the prospects for investments in housing, experts say, is the state of affairs in the relevant market.

Situation in the real estate market

How are things in the real estate segment? Is it profitable now to take a mortgage in terms of the expected movement of housing prices? Experts identify three likely scenarios concerning the prospects for the development of the market.

According to the first, property prices in the coming years will remain at a level more or less relevant to the current. Supporters of this view believe that the current real estate market in terms of pricing, supply and demand is fairly balanced. Potential decline in consumer activity due to the restriction of lending by banks and low borrowers' creditworthiness, economists believe, will be accompanied by a corresponding decline in supply - largely due to the fact that homeowners prefer to wait out the crisis and not sell housing too cheaply. Is it profitable now to take a mortgage relative to this scenario? Probably not very. Prices will remain the same, and interest to the bank, which, moreover, is likely to be large due to the crisis, will have to pay.

However, it makes sense to make an apartment on credit in the event that a person is currently renting housing, and the expected amount of payments will be commensurate with rental rates. However, this option assumes that the citizen has a significant amount for the initial installment of the mortgage. And in this case, it is probably more profitable to formalize it as a deposit, receive interest, due to which, in turn, pay for rented apartment. Some banks now offer to issue a contribution of 20% per annum or more. This is due, according to analysts, with the increase in the refinancing rate of the Central Bank, which in December rose to 17%. If we take as a basis the scenario discussed above, from the investment point of view, the deposit will look more profitable than investing in an apartment - it is unlikely that it, in this case, will rise in price by 20% per year, and then another by the same amount, while in the case With the deposit the interest is calculated by the bank in progression.

The second scenario assumes that property prices will still rise. This will be connected, first of all, with inflationary processes. It is expected, for example, that by summarizing the results of economic development in 2014, the corresponding figure will exceed 11%. Even if the demand in the real estate market is not sufficiently dynamic, experts believe, the increase in house prices, in general, can be expected in proportion to inflation. Is it worth to take a mortgage now, if we consider this scenario?

Most likely, the benchmarks for a potential buyer in this case here will be approximately the same as in the case of the first option. That is, you can take a loan for an apartment, if at the moment the housing is withdrawn, and interest payments will be the same or not much larger than the rent. Or make a deposit for the amount collected for the initial payment, receive interest and at the expense of this, pay for rent.

The third scenario involves a decline in house prices. This will be due, in turn, to a possible imbalance between supply and demand in the market, which may be warmed by the fact that in recent years a significant amount of new buildings has been introduced in Russia. Although a significant part of the apartments constructed under these projects are equity, yet a perceptible percentage of them will subsequently be sold at market prices or, for example, resold. This may create, as some economists believe, an excessive supply in the housing market.

Probably, if you follow this scenario, it does not even make sense to wonder whether it's worth taking a mortgage now. Of course, this will not be the best option. If it is a question of search of favorable investments it is possible to pay attention to deposits. If there is a need for housing, it is better to rent it, especially as the corresponding rates tend to decline after the purchase and sale segment.

The factors are interrelated

Of course, each of the scenarios in the real estate market largely depends on the situation in the banking sector, and on the level of solvency of citizens. Therefore, we can say that the above crisis factors directly influence the housing market, as well as any other. At the same time, experts still believe that objective market mechanisms - supply and demand - are formed under the influence of the mentioned factors to a limited extent. Criteria are very important, reflecting the real need of Russians in these or other types of housing, taking into account the impact of migration processes, changes in the technology of construction of apartments, etc.

Dollar exchange rate factor

Some experts, however, consider it permissible to single out also the fourth scenario, which assumes a significant increase in property prices due to the impact of a unique, in a sense, factor. As you know, the rate of the dollar rose to the ruble in 2014 almost twice. However, most of the currencies of other developing countries, including CIS countries, have not fallen in price to the American one. As a result, the average salary in dollars in Russia and, say, in Kazakhstan, has practically leveled off, or even, perhaps, has become inferior to that established in a neighboring country. As a result, apartments in the Russian Federation in terms of, say, Kazakh tenge in a number of segments are significantly cheaper than those of their neighbors. Citizens of Kazakhstan eventually come to Russia and buy housing here. This trend, as some economists suggest, may persist, and also intensify due to the similar activity of residents of other neighboring countries - Belarus, Azerbaijan, the Baltic states, possibly China. This can to some extent warm up the demand for real estate and cause the price increase in dynamics exceeding inflation.

Perhaps a person should study, deciding whether to take a mortgage, opinions of experts regarding the fourth scenario, but only if he lives in a border city. That is, this option can be attributed to the number of localized.

conclusions

Thus, we have identified the main factors that determine the crisis trends in the real estate market, and examined the main scenarios, the study of which will allow us to determine whether it is worth taking a mortgage for an apartment in today's market situation.

Let's try to summarize. So, in the market of bank crediting - crisis. Banks, in all probability, will not be able to issue loans with the dynamics that they did in previous years, and on the same conditions on interest. Borrowers, in turn, will not always have an objective opportunity to pay on the mortgage. The consequence is a decrease in demand. The reason for the banking crisis is the political situation. Therefore, depending on whether it is worth taking a mortgage now, when the EU and US sanctions are being applied against Russia, we probably say that there is not. It is necessary to wait until the situation in the banks stabilizes, they will find new sources of loans to pay off existing obligations, or they will be helped by the Government.

The second factor that can influence the decision on whether to take a mortgage right now is the situation on the Russian real estate market. Basic economists distinguish three scenarios. This is the stabilization of prices, their small growth, commensurate with inflation, or a decline. Or, if a person lives in a border town, some increase in the cost of apartments.

Is it worth taking a mortgage? Pros and cons of this decision in relation to the current market situation are quite obvious. Among the positive moments - the opportunity to invest profitable, if the demand in the near future will grow. Economists, while recognizing the significant depth of the current crisis, believe that the situation will improve in the foreseeable future - due to the possible return of oil prices, import substitution, diversification of the country's economy. Also, investments in real estate, at least, will ensure the safety of monetary investments in relation to inflation. Among the negative sides of the decision to buy housing - the likelihood of a fall in prices or lack of their growth is quite high. Neither one nor the other will not be beneficial for the buyer of the apartment. Also, most likely, at this stage, banks will not be able to offer borrowers comfortable terms of interest.